|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]周 捷,李 健.浙江省丝绸出口特征及预测分析[J].丝绸,2019,56(8):081104.
 ZHOU Jie,LI Jian.Characteristics and forecast of silk export in Zhejiang Province[J].Journal of Silk,2019,56(8):081104.
点击复制

浙江省丝绸出口特征及预测分析(PDF)
分享到:

《丝绸》[ISSN:1001-7003/CN:33-1122/TS]

卷:
56
期数:
2019年8期
页码:
081104
栏目:
研究与技术
出版日期:
2019-08-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
Characteristics and forecast of silk export in Zhejiang Province
文章编号:
1001-7003(2019)08-0000-00
作者:
周 捷李 健
西安工程大学 服装与艺术设计学院,西安 710048
Author(s):
ZHOU Jie LI Jian
Apparel and Art Fashion College, Xi’an Polytechnic University, Xi’an 710048, China
关键词:
丝绸贸易现状分析新陈代谢GM(11)模型浙江地区对策
Keywords:
silk trade situation analysis metabolic GM (11) model Zhejiang Province countermeasure
分类号:
F426.81
doi:
-
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
浙江省是中国丝绸出口大省,在国家和区域经济发展规划中具有重要意义。为探析浙江省丝绸出口特征及其趋势,文章基于2010—2017年浙江省丝绸出口的贸易数据,采用新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型进行趋势预测,并与GM(1,1)、离散GM(1,1)和新陈代谢离散GM(1,1)模型验证比较。结果表明,新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型对时间有限且信息缺乏的丝绸出口数据具有较高的建模泛化能力,其平均相对误差仅为3.81%,预测精度为一级,较GM(1,1) (5.21%) 、离散GM(1,1)(5.21%)及新陈代谢离散GM(1,1)(3.85%)模型均有了较大改善。此外,2018—2022年浙江省丝绸出口额将以年均8.79%的速度明显滑坡。为继续巩固和发展浙江丝绸出口大省的优势地位,提出了增加丝绸附加值、降低生产成本和建立预警机制等针对性较强的建议。
Abstract:
Zhejiang Province is a major silk export province in China and is of great significance in national and regional economic development planning. In order to analyze the characteristics and trends of silk export in Zhejiang Province, the metabolic GM (1,1) model was used for trend prediction based on the trade data of Zhejiang silk exports from 2010 to 2017 and the result was verified and compared with GM (1,1), discrete GM (1,1) and metabolic discrete GM (1,1) model. The results show that the metabolic GM (1 ,1) model has high modeling and generalization ability for silk export data with limited time and lack of information. The average relative error is 3.81%, and the prediction accuracy is Level 1, which is better than GM (1,1) (5.21%), discrete GM (1,1) (5.21%) and metabolic discrete GM (1,1) (3.85%) models. In addition, from 2018 to 2022, Zhejiang’s silk export amount will decline at an average annual rate of 8.79%. In order to continue to consolidate and develop the dominant position of silk exporting province, some suggestions were put forward, such as increasing the added value of silk, reducing production costs and establishing an early warning mechanism

参考文献/References:

[1]钱有清, 刘文全, 柳恩见. 中国茧丝绸行业2017年运行分析及2018年展望[J]. 丝绸, 2018, 55(7):1-6.
QIAN Youqing, LIU Wenquan, LIU Enjian. Operation analysis of China’s cocoon and silk industry in 2017 and outlook for 2018 [J]. Journal of Silk, 2018, 55 (7): 1-6.
[2]张晴, 罗其友, 刘洋. 中美贸易摩擦对中国茧丝绸业的影响[J]. 丝绸, 2018, 55(12):1-5.
ZHANG Qing, LUO Qiyou, LIU Yang. Analysis on the impact of Sino-US trade friction on cocoon and silk industry in China [J]. Journal of Silk, 2018, 55 (12): 1-5.
[3]王蕾, 李建琴, 顾国达. 中国茧丝绸产品在国际市场的定价话语权:基于国际市场势力的实证分析[J]. 蚕业科学, 2017,43(2):327-335.
WANG Lei, LI Jianqin, GU Guoda. Pricing power of China’s cocoon and silk products in international market: an empirical analysis based on international market power [J]. Science of Sericulture, 2017,43(2): 327-335.
[4]张月华, GELETA Hailu, ENDALE Hailu. 埃塞俄比亚蚕业发展现状及其对策[J]. 丝绸, 2017, 54(11):50-55.
ZHANG Yuehua, GELETA Hailu, ENDALE Hailu. Present situation and countermeasures of sericulture development in Ethiopia [J]. Journal of Silk, 2017, 54(11):50-55.
[5]罗明智, 黄红燕, 张培芬, 等. 广西蚕桑产业生产效率及影响因素研究:基于超效率SBM-Tobit模型[J]. 丝绸, 2019, 56(2):1-7.
LUO Mingzhi, HUANG Hongyan, ZHANG Peifen, et al. Study on production efficiency and influencing factors of sericulture in Guangxi:based on super: efficient SBM-Tobit model [J]. Journal of Silk, 2019, 56(2): 1-7.
[6]ZHANG Y Z. Application of improved BP neural network based on e-commerce supply chain network data in the forecast of aquatic product export volume [J]. Cognitive Systems Resea rch, 2019, 57(10):228-235.
[7]WANG C C. A comparison study between fuzzy time series model and ARIMA model for forecasting Taiwan export [J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2011, 38(8): 9296-9304.
[8]ABRAHAM E R, REIS J G M D, COLOSSETTI A P, et al. Neural network system to forecast the soybean exportation on brazilian port of santos [C]. APMS 2017: Advances in Production Management Sys-tems. The Path to Intelligent, Collaborative and Sustainable Manufacturing, 2017: 83-90.
[9]WANG Z X, LI Q, PEI L L. A seasonal GM(1,1) model for forecasting the electricity consumption of the primary economic sectors [J]. Energy, 2018, 154: 522-534.
[10]JULONG D . Introduction to grey system theory [J]. Journal of Grey System, 1989, 1(1):1-24.
[11]于雪, 陈立军. 中国城乡恩格尔系数差异度的灰色建模与预测[J]. 西安工程大学学报, 2014,28(2): 257-261.
YU Xue, CHEN Lijun. Prediction and grey-model of China urban and rural Engel coefficient difference [J]. Journal of Xi’an Polytechnic University, 2014,28(2): 257-261.
[12]任祎卓, 顾国达. 美国经济波动对中国丝绸出口贸易的影响[J]. 蚕业科学, 2016,42(3):525-531.
REN Yizhuo, GU Guoda. Influence of the United States economic fluctuation on China’s silk export trade [J]. Science of Sericulture, 2016,42(3): 525-531.
[13]LIU Feng, SUN Shimin, QIAO Xianjuan. China-Indian silk trade: current production and future prospects [J]. Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment, 2009, 7(2):6.
[14]冯鑫明, 滕瑜. 中国蚕丝类商品出口市场结构及优化分析[J]. 丝绸, 2012, 49(10):77-80.
FENG Xinming, TENG Yu. Analysis on export market structure and optimization of Chinese natural silk commodities [J]. Journal of Silk, 2012, 49(10):77-80.
[15]李建琴, 顾国达, 何樟勇, 等. 中国茧丝绸产业区域布局与发展重点[J]. 蚕业科学, 2018,44(6): 936-946.
LI Jianqin, GU Guoda, HE Zhangyong, et al. Regional distribution and developing emphasis of China’s cocoon silk industry [J]. Science of Sericulture, 2018, 44(6): 936-946.
[16]ZHOU W , HE J M . Generalized GM(1,1) model and its application in forecasting of fuel production [J]. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 2013, 37(9): 6234-6243.
[17]谢乃明, 刘思峰. 离散GM(1,1)模型与灰色预测模型建模机理[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2005, 25(1): 93-99.
XIE Naiming, LIU Sifeng. Discrete GM (1, 1) and mechanism of grey forecasting model[J]. Systems Engineering Theory and Practice, 2005, 25(1): 93-99.
[18] ZHANG Q D, CHEN R D. Application of metabolic GM(1,1) model in financial repression approach to the financing difficulty of the small and medium-sized enterprises [J]. Grey Systems: Theory and Application, 2014, 4(2): 311-320.
[19]MENG X Y, CHEN R H, WANG S B. The metabolic GM (1,1) prediction of the absolute gas emission quantity in a certain mine [J]. Advanced Materials Research, 2014, 989/994: 3480-3484.
[20]常丽霞, 高卫东, 潘如如, 等. 灰色GM(1,1)模型在国际春夏女装流行色色相预测中的应用[J]. 纺织学报, 2015,36(4): 128-133.
CHANG Lixia, GAO Weidong, PAN Ruru, et al. Hue prediction on Intercolor for women’s spring /summerusing GM(1,1) models [J]. Journal of Textile Research, 2015, 36(4): 128-133.
[21]李亚辉, 孔真. 恢复振兴和田地区茧丝绸产业的对策建议[J]. 丝绸, 2018, 55(1):1-8.
LI Yahui, KONG Zhen. Suggestions and countermeasures on revitalizing the cocoon and silk industry in Hotan prefecture [J]. Journal of Silk, 2018, 55(1):1-8.
[22]钱同源. 论丝绸品牌之战略[J]. 丝绸, 2011, 48(11):58-60.
QIAN Tongyuan. Discussion the brand strategy of silk [J]. Journal of Silk, 2011, 48(11):58-60.
[23]EISENBARTH, SABRINA. Is Chinese trade policy motivated by environmental concerns?[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2017, 82:74-103.
[24]GOURDON J , MONJON, ST?PHANIE, et al. Trade policy and industrial policy in China: what motivates public authorities to apply restrictions on exports? [J]. China Economic Review, 2016, 40: 105-120.
[25]胡祚忠, 叶晶晶, 吴建梅, 等. 生丝国际标准的研究制定[J]. 丝绸, 2014, 51(7):26-31.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
基金项目:陕西省科技厅国际科技合作计划项目(2018KW-056)
收稿日期:2018-12-18
修回日期:2019-06-12
作者简介:周捷(1969—),女,副教授,博士,主要从事功能性内衣、服装结构和人体科学的研究
更新日期/Last Update: 2019-06-21